The Anti-Hype Cycle
Why Boring is the New Sexy in Innovation
In the world of startups and venture capital, the hype cycle is hard to escape. The latest AI breakthrough, the newest blockchain protocol, the next big thing in getting from A to B—these are the shiny objects that capture our attention and fuel our FOMO, especially when the founders are bragging on Twitter about their $200 million raise. But what if I told you that the real opportunities for innovation and outsized returns lie not in the overhyped sectors but in the ones that everyone else is ignoring?
Enter the Anti-Hype Cycle. This is the idea that the industries and areas that are widely perceived as lame, uninspiring, or "capped out" on growth or innovation are actually ripe for disruption and value creation. It's where smart founders and savvy investors should be focusing their attention and resources.
Why? Because when everyone else is chasing the latest fad, they're leaving behind a treasure trove of overlooked problems and underserved markets. These are the spaces where real customer pain points exist, where incumbent players have grown complacent, and where a fresh perspective and a dose of creative thinking can unlock massive opportunities. Focusing more on the “needs” column of everyday human existence than the “wants” column. We’ve already talked about desalination, farming(a couple of times), housing, and energy at least once per month on this newsletter. There is a good reason for this: needs are needs, and while it isn’t always flashy, doing it right is important and impactful.
Consider the world of industrial manufacturing. While the consumer tech crowd is busy chasing the latest social media app, startups like Hadrian and Velo3D are quietly revolutionizing the way we make things, from rocket engines to medical devices. I am also working on something here, hopefully something to announce soon-ish :). By leveraging advanced technologies like 3D printing and robotics, they're enabling a new era of precision, speed, and flexibility in manufacturing. How things get made is generally below the gaze of the consumer, but every time we advance manufacturing just 1%, they feel the benefit.
The list goes on. From construction to waste management(which deserves a feature, I think), logistics to agriculture, countless industries have been written off as stagnant or uninspiring. But some of the most exciting innovations are happening today in these very spaces.
Of course, operating in the Anti-Hype Cycle isn't for everyone. It requires a certain contrarian mindset, a willingness to zig when everyone else is zagging. It means rolling up your sleeves and getting your hands dirty in industries that may not have the same glamour factor as the latest consumer tech darling. No one will applaud the same way when you say you are working on desalinating water as they will when you announce your new AI model(not that this is bad, just that the talent distribution should be a little more equal), but that is part of the advantage of being in the Anti-Hype Cycle trenches. When the vibes finally change, you will be far out front. By tackling the hard problems that others are ignoring by bringing a fresh perspective to industries that have been stagnant for too long, founders and investors in the Anti-Hype Cycle have the opportunity to create real, lasting value - and to generate outsized returns in the process.
So the next time you're tempted to chase the latest hype cycle, take a step back and consider the Anti-Hype Cycle instead. Look for the industries everyone else is overlooking, the problems that no one else is solving. That's where the real magic happens - and where the smart money is going.
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